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NFP on Deck, Gold and UST are ready for rally

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This week RBA’s rate decision and a speech from the Bank of Japan’s Governor will provide key direction for Asia-Pacific markets, while JOLTs job openings and ADP employment figures will serve as important precursors to the NFP report. Against the backdrop of a subtle shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, this week’s data could significantly reshape market expectations for the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.

Key Event to Watch:

1. RBA Rate Decision – Tuesday

The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its interest rate at 3.60%. This forecast is supported by Australia’s accelerating annual inflation in August, which reached the top of the RBA’s 2%-3% target range, coupled with a tight labor market as shown in last week’s employment report. If the rate is held as expected, the Australian dollar is likely to see potential for appreciation.

2. BOJ Governor’s Speech – Thursday

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak at the International Financial Forum in Tokyo. His speech comes after the BoJ’s September announcement of its plan to sell ETFs. Previously, Ueda emphasized that the timing of the next rate hike would depend on the impact of tariffs and food inflation trends. Investors will be closely watching for any new forward guidance on interest rates.

3. U.S. September NFP Report  – Friday

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm payrolls data. Following a weak print of just 22,000 new jobs in August, the market is focused on whether September’s figure will continue to show softness. If job growth remains low, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October will increase, which could lead to a rally in U.S. Treasuries and gold.

4. U.S. September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Friday

Later on Friday, the U.S. will also release the September ISM Services PMI data. As the service sector constitutes about 80% of the U.S. economy, this data is crucial for assessing its overall health. The August reading was 52; if the index remains in expansionary territory for September with a rebound in the new orders component, it would support the “economic resilience” narrative.

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