Nasdaq 100 Index Analysis: Bounce or Break?

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the NAS100 for December 18, 2025.

Technical Analysis of NAS100

NAS100 Daily Chart Insight

• Caution is advised. The Daily chart shows a market that is heavy. The formation of a lower high combined with the loss of the short-term moving average suggests that the bears are currently in control. Traders should not “catch the falling knife” yet. Bearish traders should look for a break and retest of 24,570 as an opportunity to enter short positions targeting 24,134. Bullish traders should remain on the sidelines until the price stabilizes above 24,600 with the Stochastic indicator turning upward, or alternatively wait for a deeper pullback near the Green moving average around 23,700 to find better value entry points.
• Key Levels: Immediate support lies between 24,570 and 24,600 at the Black Moving Average, serving as this week’s critical “line in the sand.” If breached, the next target is 24,134, the mid-November correction low, followed by major trend support at 23,695 (Green MA), which offers excellent value for long-term buyers. On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 25,450 (Purple MA), with structural resistance at 25,890—the recent lower high whose break would invalidate the current bearish correction. Major resistance remains at the all-time high of 26,330.

NAS100 2-Hour Chart Analysis

• Price is currently trading well below all three moving averages, making them all resistance levels. The Purple MA (Fast) is located around 24,900 and serves as immediate dynamic resistance—in strong downtrends, price typically corrects back to this line before continuing lower. The Green MA (Slow) sits at 25,300, a level that previously acted as support but has now flipped to become major overhead resistance.
• Breakout Scenarios: Immediate support sits at 24,726, the current consolidation low and the only level holding price up, followed by structural support at 24,570 and psychological support at the round number of 24,500. On the upside, immediate resistance spans 24,840 to 24,900 at the consolidation top and Purple Moving Average, with secondary resistance at 25,130 (a minor swing high during the decline) and major resistance at 25,300, where the Green Moving Average aligns with the previous structural breakdown point.

NAS100 Pivot Indicator

• The NAS100 is experiencing a pronounced intraday downtrend, as indicated by the sharp decline in the moving averages. The market has entered a corrective pause with price stabilizing around 24,715 and showing signs of a minor rebound. The Stochastic oscillator is climbing sharply, signaling that a short-term relief rally or “dead cat bounce” is in progress, with price likely to test immediate dynamic resistance levels before sellers may re-enter the market.
• The “Bear Flag” Activation: The bearish continuation pattern would be triggered if price rejects the Purple MA at 24,820 or slightly higher at 24,850, followed by a breakdown below 24,715. This would confirm that the current pause is merely a consolidation flag within the downtrend. The measured move from this setup targets lower levels at 24,600 and 24,570.
• Intraday Relief Rally : A counter-trend move would be triggered by an M30 candle closing above the Purple MA at 24,825, accompanied by the Stochastic continuing its climb toward the 80 level. This scenario represents the market “coming up for air” as it rebalances from oversold conditions. Price would likely rally to test the Black MA near 24,980, though traders should remain vigilant for bearish reversal candlesticks such as shooting stars in this zone, which would present opportunities to re-enter the main downtrend.

How to Navigate the Forex Market with Ultima Markets

To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey. For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets.

Join Ultima Markets today and access a comprehensive trading ecosystem equipped with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive in the financial markets. Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.

—–

Legal Documents

Trading leveraged derivative products carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can magnify both gains and losses, potentially resulting in rapid and substantial capital loss. Before trading, carefully assess your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. If you are uncertain, seek advice from a licensed financial adviser. Leveraged products are not intended for inexperienced investors who do not fully understand the risks or who are unable to bear the possibility of significant losses.

Copyright © 2025 Ultima Markets Ltd. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.