Markets Catch a Breath as Tensions Ease; Focus Shifts to US Inflation

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – March 10, 2026

Global markets are experiencing a tentative moment of calm this Tuesday morning. Following the relentless geopolitical panic that gripped the energy sector over the weekend, the Monday session saw a sharp reversal, allowing traders to reassess their positions. However, the macro landscape remains highly uncertain.

As the war headlines temporarily (or perhaps not) step out of the spotlight, the market’s focus is pivoting back to the economic data front, where looming inflation data threatens to sharply shift the market narrative next.

Middle East Tensions Ease, but Markets Remain Headline-Driven

The explosive rally in crude oil has taken a breather following President Trump’s remarks that the “war is ending soon” and the G7 nations’ decision to release strategic oil reserves. This has drained a portion of the geopolitical risk premium from the energy market.

While oil prices have ticked lower from their recent parabolic highs, the market remains entirely headline-driven. The structural threat to the Strait of Hormuz is still very real, meaning the floor under energy prices remains remarkably firm.

UKOUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Brent Crude (UKOUSD) has pulled back from its parabolic surge, bringing prices back to the $92.00 mark, nearing its 2024 highs. This can be viewed as a technical mean reversion, establishing $92.00 as a logical key resistance level for Brent moving forward.

Expect a near-term bounce near this range, with $88.00 now serving as imminent support and $80.00 as major support. With war headlines still lingering, oil may stay elevated above the $80.00 support broadly, while near-term price action may lean more toward consolidation.

What’s Next for the Dollar: The Inflation Pivot

The US Dollar Index (USDX) gap-surged on Monday, fueled heavily by pure safe-haven demand. But as the geopolitical panic cools, the Greenback needs a new catalyst to maintain its dominance. That catalyst arrives this week in the form of US inflation data.

Following last Friday’s shocking -92K NFP jobs print, the market is on high alert for “Stagflation.” If upcoming CPI and PPI data show that inflation remains stubbornly sticky despite the contracting labor market, the Fed will be completely trapped—unable to cut rates to save economic growth.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the 98.80 level has reverted to major resistance again following yesterday’s failed breakout attempt. If tensions ease further and safe-haven demand slows, the Dollar will lack the momentum needed to push higher.

If the upcoming inflation data continues to raise fears regarding the US economic outlook, the Dollar could face renewed downside pressure below the 98.80 resistance ceiling. Hence, the outlook for Dollar remain vulnerable now from both technical and fundamental perspective.

US Equities: Trapped in the Crossfire

For the US stock market, the slight easing of Middle East tensions offers only a minor reprieve. The fundamental backdrop for equities remains incredibly hostile.

Even if the threat of a broader war diminishes, Wall Street is still staring down the barrel of a shrinking labor market, elevated energy costs, and the looming threat of global tariffs. If this week’s inflation data runs hot, it will likely crush any remaining dip-buyers, solidifying the bears’ absolute control over the major indices.

DJ30, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The Dow Jones saw a sharp rebound near 46,600, perfectly respecting the 200-day moving average support as we covered earlier. However, the upside zone of 47,900 – 48,000, which previously acted as support, has now flipped into major resistance.

This will be the key level for the Dow Jones to test. Unless bulls can force a daily close above this ceiling, the index remains highly vulnerable to another wave of selling pressure. Looking ahead, while current support is holding well, traders must stay highly cautious of another leg down.

What to Watch Today

• Geopolitical Headlines (The Wildcard): While tensions have slightly eased, the Middle East remains a powder keg. Any sudden military developments, retaliatory strikes, or shipping blockades will instantly hijack the market narrative, overriding technicals and sending capital rushing back into Oil and the US Dollar.
• Macro Data Shift (Pre-Inflation Positioning): With the economic calendar relatively light today, institutional traders will spend the US session squaring their books in preparation for the critical US inflation data later this week. Expect choppy, range-bound price action in the FX and equity markets as the focus transitions from war fears to the “Stagflation” reality.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.