Crude Oil Analysis: A Bullish Correction or a Pause Before the Next Leg Down?

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USOUSD for September 10, 2025.

Technical Analysis of USOUSD

USOUSD Daily Chart Insights

• The price has recently stabilized and is trading in a narrow range close to its latest support levels. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is climbing from deeply oversold conditions below 20, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing and pointing toward a potential near-term recovery or sideways movement.
• Key support area: The immediate support zone lies between $61.75 and $62.00, which represents the low established in mid-August and retested in early September, making it the most critical level that bulls must defend in the near term. Below this, major support sits at $57.20, corresponding to the significant low from early May 2025, which would likely become the next target if the immediate support level fails to hold.

USOUSD 2-Hour Chart Analysis

• Following a low around $61.96, the price has been establishing a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, signaling a corrective bounce in the short term. The price is now testing the medium-term black moving average, which serves as a crucial decision point for future direction. The Stochastic Oscillator has climbed from oversold levels below 20 and currently sits in the mid-range, confirming the recent upward momentum while indicating that the price has additional room to advance before reaching overbought conditions.
• Breakout scenarios: A bullish breakout would be signaled by a sustained 2-hour close above the $63.60 resistance and the black moving average, which would open the door for a test of the next major resistance zone at $64.20 – $64.40. A decisive move above the secondary resistance would significantly weaken the bearish structure. Conversely, a bearish breakout representing trend continuation could occur if the price fails to break above the current resistance at $63.60 and subsequently rolls over. The first sign of weakness would be a break and close below the immediate support at $62.78, while a confirmed bearish continuation would occur on a break below the major support at $61.96, likely leading to further downside movement.

USOUSD Pivot Indicator

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has entered overbought territory above 80, indicating that the recent upward movement is overextended and may be approaching a pause, consolidation phase, or a potential pullback. The elevated reading serves as a warning signal for aggressive buyers considering entry at current price levels.
• Bullish Breakout: A sustained 30-minute close above the $63.40 resistance zone is required to confirm a bullish continuation, which would signal a potential shift in momentum by breaking above the long-term moving average on the chart and opening the path toward the $63.85 resistance level and potentially higher targets.
• Bearish Reversal/Breakdown: Given the overbought Stochastic reading and the strong resistance at $63.40, a rejection at the current level represents a high-probability scenario. A bearish breakdown would be confirmed by a close below the immediate support at $63.05, which would indicate that the bullish correction has lost momentum and could lead to a retest of lower support levels at $62.80 and potentially back toward the major low at $62.00.

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