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Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – March 12, 2026
Global markets experienced a rollercoaster session on Wednesday. While the highly anticipated US CPI report came in line with expectations—offering a brief sigh of relief from the “Stagflation” nightmare—the optimism was rapidly erased.
Meanwhile, a combination of a renewed surge in crude oil prices and a disastrously weak US Treasury auction sent bond yields skyrocketing. This macroeconomic mix triggered a sharp intraday reversal, sending the US Dollar rebounding higher while mercilessly dragging down US equities.
US CPI In-Line, Treasury Yield Surges
The February US Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed exactly as the market expected. This temporarily eased the extreme stagflation panic that had gripped the market following last week’s shocking -92K NFP jobs report. For a brief moment, it appeared the Federal Reserve might still have room to navigate a soft landing.
February Core CPI: 2.5% YoY; 0.2% MoM
February Headline CPI: 2.4% YoY; 0.3% MoM
However, the relief rally was abruptly hijacked by the bond market. A dismal US Treasury auction saw remarkably low demand, forcing yields to spike aggressively. Investors are demanding higher premiums to hold US debt in an environment where inflation risks remain heavily skewed to the upside due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
US Dollar Rebounds as Equities Face Renewed Pressure
The sudden spike in US Treasury yields fundamentally shifted the intraday capital flows. The US Dollar, which had been drifting lower heading into the CPI print, violently reversed course and caught a massive bid as the yield differential widened.
Conversely, Wall Street faced a brutal reality check. The combination of rising borrowing costs (higher yields) and rising energy costs (surging oil) is a worst-case scenario for corporate valuations, particularly in the tech sector.
US Dollar Outlook
USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
The US Dollar Index (USDX) found aggressive buyers right at the 98.60 – 98.80 critical support zone we highlighted yesterday. The yield-driven rebound has pushed the index back above the 99.00 level.
This invalidate the near-tern bearish pressure and re-opens the path toward the 99.30 resistance ceiling again. However, ahead of the PCE Price Index on Friday, the upside may remain capped intraday.
US Equities-Nasdaq100 Outlook
NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
US equities paid the price for the yield spike. The Nasdaq 100 failed to sustain its recent rebound momentum and reversed sharply.
The index is once again sliding dangerously close to the 24,750 – 25,000 level, validating the bearish pattern that we covered earlier.
A breakdown below this floor would confirm that bears remain in absolute control, exposing the tech-heavy index to a deeper slide toward the 24,000 liquidity pool again.
Oil Market: War Premium Bites Back
Just as macroeconomic fears began to settle, the energy market reminded market who is truly in charge. Crude oil prices surged once again, confirming that the geopolitical risk premium from the US-Israel-Iran conflict remains fully entrenched.
With the Strait of Hormuz still under threat and new, any intraday dips in oil are being aggressively bought by institutional hedgers.
UKOUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
Brent Crude (UKOUSD) continues to demonstrate relentless bullish strength. After briefly consolidating to fill its weekend gap, the price has surged back toward the $100.
As long as Brent maintains its footing above the $95 immediate support, the technical outlook remains heavily skewed to the upside, with $108.00 acting as the next major fundamental target.
What to Watch Today
US Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): After the disastrous -92K NFP print last week, the market will be hyper-sensitive to any spike in weekly unemployment claims. A significant jump in claims combined with high PPI would instantly revive the “Stagflation” panic.
Treasury Yields & Oil Prices (All Day): Keep a close eye on the US 10-year yield and WTI crude. If both continue to march higher simultaneously, expect further pain for US Equities and sustained safe-haven strength for the Greenback.
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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
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