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US Equities Face Challenges at Major Levels; Crypto at Risk
US Equities Face Challenges at Major Levels; Crypto at Risk
shawn
Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 2 April 2026
Global markets are witnessing an intense battle for direction this Thursday. As the US-Iran geopolitical crisis continues to cast a long shadow over the macro landscape, risk sentiment remains highly fragile, leaving both traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets vulnerable to sudden downside pressure.
US Equities: A Tug of War at Major Levels
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are currently locked in a fierce tug of war between bulls attempting to buy the dip and bears capitalising on the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. Despite brief intraday relief rallies, the broader outlook remains firmly bearish for now.
The fundamental headwinds are simply too heavy for equities to ignore. The ongoing US-Iran conflict is keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated, whilst the resulting surge in energy prices has violently reignited inflation fears and the “no cut” narrative.
With the threat of stagflation looming, the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain a restrictive stance. This dynamic has pushed US Treasury yields to elevated levels, aggressively discounting future corporate earnings and draining the liquidity needed to sustain higher equity valuations.
S&P500 Outlook
SP500, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
Technically, the S&P 500 has rebounded to test the key pivot zone for bulls and bears at the 6,520–6,610 area. This is a critical zone that differentiates bull and bear territory.
With the fundamental headwinds remaining clear, until there is a definitive resolution to the Middle East crisis or a clear cooling of inflation risks, traders will likely continue to sell the rallies.
If the current 6,520 level fails, it opens the trapdoor for a much deeper structural correction across the broader equities market.
Nasdaq100 Outlook
NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
Similarly for the Nasdaq 100, the 24,000 zone acts as a major pivot determining bull and bear territory. Right now, we are seeing the 24,000 level come under pressure; given such macroeconomic headwinds, this could trigger another leg down towards 23,000 or even lower.
Cryptocurrency: BTC and ETH at Risk as Sentiment Sours
The overarching “risk-off” environment is aggressively spilling over into the cryptocurrency market. High-beta, speculative assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are facing intense pressure as institutional capital retreats towards traditional safe havens.
BTCUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5
If the broader market risk sentiment continues to sour, both BTC and ETH are at severe risk of technical breakdowns.
Traders should closely monitor the critical breakout and support levels on the intraday charts. A sudden failure to hold current structural floors near $65,500 could trigger a cascading liquidation event, driving prices significantly lower.
Conversely, bulls will need a massive, unexpected injection of risk appetite to stage any meaningful upside breakout, where we would need to see a clear reclaim above the key psychological level of $70,000; until then, the downside risk remains prominent.
What to Watch Today
US Initial Jobless Claims (8.30 am ET): A vital weekly gauge of the US labour market. An unexpected spike could exacerbate stagflation fears, putting further downward pressure on equities and risk assets.
Pre-NFP Market Positioning (All Day): With the crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report looming tomorrow, expect erratic market movements and potential liquidity gaps as institutional traders adjust their portfolios and hedge against sudden headline risks.
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