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RBNZ Decision Looms, North American Inflation Data on Deck

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This week, Canadian CPI and Friday’s U.S. Core PCE data will together paint a picture of inflation across North America, providing crucial input for the policy paths of their respective central banks.

Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision is expected to be a hold, but the accompanying policy statement could provide clear direction for the New Zealand dollar.

Key Event to Watch:

1. Canada January CPI (MoM) – Monday

Canada will release its January inflation data, which is key to watching the Bank of Canada’s subsequent policy direction. The focus will be on whether this monthly figure can further confirm a steady downward trend in inflation. If the data is weaker than expected, it could reinforce market expectations for the BoC to maintain an accommodative stance, thereby putting pressure on the Canadian dollar.

2. U.S. January Retail Sales (MoM) – Tuesday

This data release will reveal whether consumption, the core engine of the U.S. economy, remained resilient after the end-of-year shopping season. A surprisingly strong figure could provide a short-term boost to the dollar, while a weak performance would intensify market concerns about slowing U.S. economic momentum.

3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision – Wednesday

The market widely expects the RBNZ to hold its interest rate steady this Wednesday. The focus will be on the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook and inflation, as well as any hints about the future path for rate cuts. The hawkish or dovish tilt of the policy statement and forward guidance—for example, whether they are open to further rate cuts—will directly impact the New Zealand dollar’s trajectory.

4. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Feb 14) – Thursday

The U.S. will release its weekly initial jobless claims, a high-frequency leading indicator for the state of the American labor market. The data has remained relatively stable recently, and short-term fluctuations can provide an early signal as to whether the job market is beginning to cool.

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