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A Week of Thin Liquidity, Beware the Impact of Meeting Minutes

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The first trading week of the new year will be shortened by holidays, and market activity is expected to be extremely light. However, two major events cannot be ignored: Monday’s Bank of Japan minutes will reveal the degree of hawkish sentiment within the board following its recent rate hike, while Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes will provide crucial clues for the 2026 interest rate path.

The divergence in policy expectations between these two central banks will continue to dominate the direction of key currency pairs like USD/JPY. Traders must be especially cautious of any unexpected volatility caused by depleted liquidity around the holiday period.

Key Event to Watch:

1. Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (December Meeting) – Monday

With the release of the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions, the market’s focus is no longer on “if” they will hike, but on the board members’ discussions regarding the pace of subsequent rate hikes and the level of the neutral interest rate. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting comments, suggesting that a 0.75% rate is still “far from the bottom of the neutral level,” have left room for more hikes. If the minutes reveal a hawkish consensus, it will support the yen.

2. U.S. FHFA House Price Index (MoM) – Tuesday

This data measures the price changes of single-family homes in the U.S. Against the backdrop of the Fed’s recent rate cuts, it provides an observation point for housing price resilience. The data’s market impact is relatively moderate. A stronger-than-expected increase could briefly alleviate concerns about the housing market, while a significantly weaker figure might reinforce expectations of an economic slowdown.

3. Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Minutes (December Meeting) – Wednesday

The release of the Fed’s meeting minutes will be the core event of the week. If the minutes show a solid dovish stance and a clear path for the rate-cutting cycle, it will pressure the U.S. dollar and be favorable for risk assets. However, if they highlight significant disagreement or a more hawkish bias regarding the future path, it could boost the dollar.

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