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  • Christmas Week Trading Guide: Liquidity to Plunge, Focus on Final UK & Australian Data

Christmas Week Trading Guide: Liquidity to Plunge, Focus on Final UK & Australian Data

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This week is dominated by the Christmas holiday, resulting in shortened trading days and a significant drop in liquidity. There are few core data releases, with the main focus on Wednesday’s U.S. initial jobless claims, which could stir the market if the data is unexpected amidst thin holiday trading.

The most critical factor is the schedule: markets will begin to close early on Wednesday evening, with many global markets closed on Thursday and Friday. Traders must pay close attention to liquidity risk and manage their positions in advance.

Key Event to Watch:

1. UK Q3 GDP Annual Rate (Final) – Monday

This release provides the final confirmation of the UK’s economic growth for the third quarter. The preliminary and revised figures both showed a year-over-year growth of 1.3%. The final data typically does not see major revisions, but its importance lies in confirming the detailed structure of economic growth and providing a definitive basis for the market to assess the UK’s economic resilience. An unexpected upward revision could briefly boost the pound.

2. RBA December Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Tuesday

The market will look to these minutes for details of the internal discussions behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates steady in December. The focus will be on the specific points of disagreement regarding the “upside risks to inflation,” the board’s assessment of the strength of domestic demand, and clues about the future policy path (especially the possibility of a rate hike). These details will influence the direction of the Australian dollar.

3. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Wednesday

As a high-frequency indicator of the U.S. labor market, this data has shown significant volatility recently, with last week’s figure marking the largest increase since the pandemic began. While the reliability of the data may be affected by seasonal factors just before the Christmas holiday, the result will still influence market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

4. Japan November Unemployment Rate – Friday

The market expects the unemployment rate to remain stable at 2.5%. Against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan potentially moving to gradually adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy, a stable and low unemployment rate is a key condition supporting policy normalization. A reading that meets or is lower than expectations could offer modest support to the yen.

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