AI Rally Rescued, Dollar Dominates: NFP the Next Trigger

Daily Market Insights – November 20, 2025, brought to you by Ultima Markets.

Today is expected to be the most volatile session of the week, driven by three major catalysts: the powerful upside shock from Nvidia’s blowout earnings, the policy signals from the FOMC minutes, and the imminent release of the long-delayed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Tech Sector Triumph: Nvidia Ends the Sell-Off Streak

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings, released after the close yesterday, delivered a decisive upside surprise that immediately halted the market’s four-day losing streak.

• Record Beat: Nvidia reported revenue of $57.0 billion, well above Wall Street’s $55.4 billion estimate. Data Center revenue hit a historic $51.2 billion.
• The Guidance (The Real Win): The company issued a very strong Q4 revenue outlook of $65 billion, smashing the $61.8 billion consensus. CEO Jensen Huang rejected concerns of an AI bubble, saying “Blackwell sales are off the charts.”

The strong forward guidance validated the valuation premiums across the AI ecosystem. U.S. equity futures soared, with Nasdaq futures jumping more than 2% in after-hours trading — a sharp Risk-On reversal that eased recent technical stress signals.

FOMC Divergence & Dollar Strength

The lingering macro headwind remains the Federal Reserve’s policy path, which is increasingly defined by internal division.

The FOMC minutes released yesterday revealed a deeply split committee.

• “Many participants” supported leaving rates unchanged in December.
• “Several participants” favored pushing ahead with another cut.

The message: the December decision is effectively a coin-flip call, or even lower.

Following the minutes, market pricing for a 25 bps December cut fell to around 35%, according to CME FedWatch. This shift reinforces the view that the Fed is inclined toward a policy pause rather than an easing cycle.

This hawkish tilt continues to support the U.S. Dollar. Despite yesterday’s surge in risk assets, the DXY remains structurally firm as lower expectations for cheap liquidity keep the dollar well-supported.

US Dollar Index Outlook

USDX, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

The FOMC minutes helped propel the U.S. Dollar above the 100 mark, pushing the index to a new six-month high and reinforcing its bullish outlook.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the Dollar Index holds above the 100 level, further upside remains likely.

However, attention now shifts to today’s long-delayed Non-Farm Payrolls release, which could determine whether the dollar’s momentum continues—or faces a short-term correction.

The NFP Showdown

Today, market attention shifts squarely to the long-delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls report, the first major gauge of economic health since the government shutdown.

Consensus expects around 50,000 jobs added—an improvement from August’s 22,000—but still indicative of a slowing labor market. This release will serve as a decisive test for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

• Strong NFP (Hawkish): A print meaningfully above 50K would validate the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates. This would likely trigger a stronger U.S. Dollar and risk a partial unwind of the Nvidia-driven rally in equities.
• Weak NFP (Dovish): A softer reading would confirm continued labor market weakness, increasing pressure on the Fed to move forward with a December cut. Equities could extend their upside—albeit with caution—while the Dollar would likely weaken.

Dollar Outlook: GBPUSD on Bearish Move

Among the major Dollar pairs, GBPUSD currently presents one of the cleanest bearish setups—particularly if the Dollar extends its gains after the NFP release and expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to be deferred.

GBPUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Technically, the pair has established a clear bearish structure. A double-top pattern, formed between the early-June and September highs, has been confirmed by the decisive break below the 1.3200 support zone.

The subsequent retest and failure to reclaim 1.3200 further validates the downside bias.

With this breakdown in place, momentum now favors continuation lower. If selling pressure persists, GBPUSD could open a clean path toward the 1.2850 region, which stands as the next major support zone.

Daily Market Takeaways

With fears in the tech sector temporarily eased by Nvidia’s strong results, the market’s attention now shifts entirely to the U.S. Dollar and the NFP report, which will ultimately determine the next major move.

Given that the Dollar is currently the dominant driver of global market sentiment, its reaction will cascade across equities, commodities, and even cryptocurrency markets.

At this stage, the broader narrative still favors Dollar strength, while risk assets continue to experience wide intraday swings. Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls release will be the decisive catalyst that sets the tone for the remainder of the week—and potentially the remainder of the month.

Disclaimer

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